Answer:
a) 99.93%
b) 99.98%
Explanation:
Given that:
Total population size was only around 18 individuals ( for black-footed ferret)
If the annual survival rate in the wild was 0.4%.
a)
What is the probability that all 18 would have died in a single year?
To find that; we multiply the annual survival rate in the wild with the total population; which is:
(0.4%×18) = 0.072%
Then; we subtract it from a total of 100% in order to determine the probability that all 18 would have died in a single year.
= (100.00% - 0.072%)
= 99.93%
b)
What is the probability that all 18 would have died in a single year if canine distemper was present?
Given that;
Because of the presence of canine distemper disease, the annual mortality rate might have been as high as 0.89.
To determine the probability; we have:
1 - Annual mortality rate = annual survival rate
1 - 0.89 = 0.11 %
Therefore, 0.11% of 18 individuals = (0.0011 × 18)
= 0.0198%
Probability that all 18 would have died in a single year if canine distemper was present = 100 - probability of annual survival rate
= (100 - 0.0198)%
= 99.98%
