Answer:
(a) 0.94
(b) 0.20
(c) 90.53%
Step-by-step explanation:
From a population (Bernoulli population), 90% of the bearings meet a thickness specification, let
be the probability that a bearing meets the specification.
So, ![p_1=0.9](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=p_1%3D0.9)
Sample size,
, is large.
Let X represent the number of acceptable bearing.
Convert this to a normal distribution,
Mean: ![\mu_1=n_1p_1=500\times0.9=450](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=%5Cmu_1%3Dn_1p_1%3D500%5Ctimes0.9%3D450)
Variance: ![\sigma_1^2=n_1p_1(1-p_1)=500\times0.9\times0.1=45](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=%5Csigma_1%5E2%3Dn_1p_1%281-p_1%29%3D500%5Ctimes0.9%5Ctimes0.1%3D45)
![\Rightarrow \sigma_1 =\sqrt{45}=6.71](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=%5CRightarrow%20%5Csigma_1%20%3D%5Csqrt%7B45%7D%3D6.71)
(a) A shipment is acceptable if at least 440 of the 500 bearings meet the specification.
So, ![X\geq 440.](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=X%5Cgeq%20440.)
Here, 440 is included, so, by using the continuity correction, take x=439.5 to compute z score for the normal distribution.
.
So, the probability that a given shipment is acceptable is
![P(z\geq-1.56)=\int_{-1.56}^{\infty}\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi}}e^{\frac{-z^2}{2}}=0.94062](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=P%28z%5Cgeq-1.56%29%3D%5Cint_%7B-1.56%7D%5E%7B%5Cinfty%7D%5Cfrac%7B1%7D%7B%5Csqrt%7B2%5Cpi%7D%7De%5E%7B%5Cfrac%7B-z%5E2%7D%7B2%7D%7D%3D0.94062)
Hence, the probability that a given shipment is acceptable is 0.94.
(b) We have the probability of acceptability of one shipment 0.94, which is same for each shipment, so here the number of shipments is a Binomial population.
Denote the probability od acceptance of a shipment by
.
![p_2=0.94](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=p_2%3D0.94)
The total number of shipment, i.e sample size, ![n_2= 300](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=n_2%3D%20300)
Here, the sample size is sufficiently large to approximate it as a normal distribution, for which mean,
, and variance,
.
Mean: ![\mu_2=n_2p_2=300\times0.94=282](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=%5Cmu_2%3Dn_2p_2%3D300%5Ctimes0.94%3D282)
Variance: ![\sigma_2^2=n_2p_2(1-p_2)=300\times0.94(1-0.94)=16.92](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=%5Csigma_2%5E2%3Dn_2p_2%281-p_2%29%3D300%5Ctimes0.94%281-0.94%29%3D16.92)
.
In this case, X>285, so, by using the continuity correction, take x=285.5 to compute z score for the normal distribution.
.
So, the probability that a given shipment is acceptable is
![P(z\geq0.85)=\int_{0.85}^{\infty}\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi}}e^{\frac{-z^2}{2}=0.1977](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=P%28z%5Cgeq0.85%29%3D%5Cint_%7B0.85%7D%5E%7B%5Cinfty%7D%5Cfrac%7B1%7D%7B%5Csqrt%7B2%5Cpi%7D%7De%5E%7B%5Cfrac%7B-z%5E2%7D%7B2%7D%3D0.1977)
Hence, the probability that a given shipment is acceptable is 0.20.
(c) For the acceptance of 99% shipment of in the total shipment of 300 (sample size).
The area right to the z-score=0.99
and the area left to the z-score is 1-0.99=0.001.
For this value, the value of z-score is -3.09 (from the z-score table)
Let,
be the required probability of acceptance of one shipment.
So,
![-3.09=\frac{285.5-300\alpha}{\sqrt{300 \alpha(1-\alpha)}}](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=-3.09%3D%5Cfrac%7B285.5-300%5Calpha%7D%7B%5Csqrt%7B300%20%5Calpha%281-%5Calpha%29%7D%7D)
On solving
![\alpha= 0.977896](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=%5Calpha%3D%200.977896)
Again, the probability of acceptance of one shipment,
, depends on the probability of meeting the thickness specification of one bearing.
For this case,
The area right to the z-score=0.97790
and the area left to the z-score is 1-0.97790=0.0221.
The value of z-score is -2.01 (from the z-score table)
Let
be the probability that one bearing meets the specification. So
![-2.01=\frac{439.5-500 p}{\sqrt{500 p(1-p)}}](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=-2.01%3D%5Cfrac%7B439.5-500%20%20p%7D%7B%5Csqrt%7B500%20p%281-p%29%7D%7D)
On solving
![p=0.9053](https://tex.z-dn.net/?f=p%3D0.9053)
Hence, 90.53% of the bearings meet a thickness specification so that 99% of the shipments are acceptable.