Well if three of them end up with the same lunch box and there are only 4 total lunch boxes, then that means all of them would get their original lunchbox.
For that to happen there is a 1/4 chance for each person to correctly pick their lunchboxes.
So it’s 1/4*1/4*1/4*1/4 and that equals to 1/256.
So there is a 1/256 chance that they will end up with their original lunch box.