Question

A landowner in Texas is offered $200,000 for the exploration rights to oil on her land, along with a 25% royalty on the future profits if oil is discovered. The landowner is also tempted to develop the field herself, believing that the interest in her land is a good indication that oil is present. In that case, she will have to contract a local drilling company to drill an exploratory well on her own. The cost for such a well is $750,000, which is lost forever if no oil is found. If oil is discovered, however, the landowner expects to earn future profits of $7,500,000. Finally, the landowner estimates (with the help of her geologist friend) the probability of finding oil on this site to be 70%. What should the landowner do

Answer 1

Answer:

b. She should develop herself as the EMV of developing is $1.125 million, which is higher than the EMV of selling.

Explanation:

The probability of discovered oil = 0.25 (25%)

Selling the exploration right= Selling Price + Probability of discovered oil × Royalty% × Future Profit

= $200,000 + 0.25 × 0.25 × $7,500,000 = $668,750

Developing = Probability of finding the oil × Future Profits - Cost of Well

= 0.25 × $7,500,000 - $750,000 = $1,125,000

= $1.125 million

Therefore the EMV for selling the exploration rights is less than the developing, the landowner will develop the site by his own.