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Alexxx [7]
3 years ago
6

Assume that the Poisson distribution applies and that the mean number of hurricanes in a certain area is 6.9 per year. a. Find t

he probability​ that, in a​ year, there will be 4 hurricanes. b. In a 45​-year ​period, how many years are expected to have 4 ​hurricanes? c. How does the result from part​ (b) compare to a recent period of 45 years in which 4 years had 4 ​hurricanes? Does the Poisson distribution work well​ here? a. The probability is nothing. ​(Round to three decimal places as​ needed.)
Mathematics
1 answer:
VLD [36.1K]3 years ago
5 0

Answer:

a) 9.52% probability​ that, in a​ year, there will be 4 hurricanes.

b) 4.284 years are expected to have 4 ​hurricanes.

c) The value of 4 is very close to the expected value of 4.284, so the Poisson distribution works well here.

Step-by-step explanation:

In a Poisson distribution, the probability that X represents the number of successes of a random variable is given by the following formula:

P(X = x) = \frac{e^{-\mu}*\mu^{x}}{(x)!}

In which

x is the number of sucesses

e = 2.71828 is the Euler number

\mu is the mean in the given time interval.

6.9 per year.

This means that \mu = 6.9

a. Find the probability​ that, in a​ year, there will be 4 hurricanes.

This is P(X = 4).

So

P(X = x) = \frac{e^{-\mu}*\mu^{x}}{(x)!}

P(X = 4) = \frac{e^{-6.9}*(6.9)^{4}}{(4)!}

P(X = 4) = 0.0952

9.52% probability​ that, in a​ year, there will be 4 hurricanes.

b. In a 45​-year ​period, how many years are expected to have 4 ​hurricanes?

For each year, the probability is 0.0952.

Multiplying by 45

45*0.0952 = 4.284.

4.284 years are expected to have 4 ​hurricanes.

c. How does the result from part​ (b) compare to a recent period of 45 years in which 4 years had 4 ​hurricanes? Does the Poisson distribution work well​ here?

The value of 4 is very close to the expected value of 4.284, so the Poisson distribution works well here.

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