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xenn [34]
3 years ago
9

1898, L. J. Bortkiewicz published a book entitled The Law of Small Numbers. He used data collected over 20 years to show that th

e number of soldiers killed by horse kicks each year in each corps in the Prussian cavalry followed a Poisson distribution with a mean of 0.61.
Required:
a. What is the probability of more than 1 death in a corps in a year?
b. What is the probability of no deaths in a corps over five years?
Mathematics
1 answer:
seropon [69]3 years ago
8 0

Answer: a. 0.1252

b. 0.04736

Step-by-step explanation:

Let X denotes a  the number of soldiers killed by horse kicks in a year such that it has a Poisson distribution with mean \lambda=0.61.

Poisson distribution formula:

P(x; \lambda) = \dfrac{(e^{-\lambda}) (\lambda^ x)}{  x!}

a.    P(X>1)=1-P(X\leq1)

=1- (P(X=0)+P(X=1))\\\\=1-( \dfrac{(e^{-0.61}) ((0.61)^0)}{  0!}+\dfrac{(e^{-0.61}) ((0.61)^1)}{  1!})\\\\= 1-( \dfrac{(0.54335) }{ 1}+\dfrac{(0.54335) (0.61)}{  1})\\\\\approx0.1252

Hence, the probability of more than 1 death in a corps in a year= 0.1252

b.  For five years, Mean = \mu =\lambda \times 5= 0.61\times5 =3.05

P(X=0)=e^{-3.05}\dfrac{3.05^0}{0!}

\\\\=(0.04736)\dfrac{1}{1}\approx0.04736

Hence,  the probability of no deaths in a corps over five years = 0.04736

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