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The probability that the first two votes drawn are both for candidate a is given by:
3C2/5C2 = 3/10
Having drawn two votes for candidate a on the first two draws, there are 2 votes for candidate b and one vote for candidate a remaining. The probability that a vote for candidate b will be drawn on the third draw is:
2/3.
After the first three draws, there reains one vote for candidate a and one vote for candidate b. The probability that a vote for candidate a will be drawn on the fourth draw is:
1/2.
The probability of the ordering aabab is therefore given by:
The answer is: 0.1.
3C2/5C2 = 3/10
Having drawn two votes for candidate a on the first two draws, there are 2 votes for candidate b and one vote for candidate a remaining. The probability that a vote for candidate b will be drawn on the third draw is:
2/3.
After the first three draws, there reains one vote for candidate a and one vote for candidate b. The probability that a vote for candidate a will be drawn on the fourth draw is:
1/2.
The probability of the ordering aabab is therefore given by:
The answer is: 0.1.