Answer:
34.86% probability that it will be huge success
Step-by-step explanation:
Bayes Theorem:
Two events, A and B.
In which P(B|A) is the probability of B happening when A has happened and P(A|B) is the probability of A happening when B has happened.
In this question:
Event A: Receiving a favorable review.
Event B: Being a huge success.
Information on previous textbooks published show that 20 % are huge successes
This means that
99 % of the huge successes received favorable reviews
This means that
Probability of receiving a favorable review:
20% are huge successes. Of those, 99% receive favorable reviews.
30% are modest successes. Of those, 70% receive favorable reviews.
30% break even. Of those, 40% receive favorable reviews.
20% are losers. Of those, 20% receive favorable reviews.
Then
Finally
34.86% probability that it will be huge success
