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german
2 years ago
9

Paired t‐Test for Mean Comparison with Dependent Samples To study the effects of an advertising campaign at a supply chain, seve

ral stores are randomly selected with the following observed before‐ and after‐advertising monthly sales revenues:
Store number 1 2 3 4 5
Old sales revenue (mil. $) 5.2 6.5 7.2 5.7 7.6
New sales revenue (mil. $) 6.4 7.8 6.8 6.5 8.2
Let μ₁ and μ₂ be the means of old and new sales revenues, both in millions of dollars per month.
(a) At α = 0.05, test H0: μ2 ≤ μ1 versus H1: μ2 > μ1. Sketch the test. Interpret your result.
(b)Sketch and find the p‐value of the test. Would you reject H0 if α = 0.01?

Mathematics
1 answer:
Lapatulllka [165]2 years ago
7 0

Answer:

a) t=\frac{\bar d -0}{\frac{s_d}{\sqrt{n}}}=\frac{0.7 -0}{\frac{0.678}{\sqrt{5}}}=2.308  

p_v =P(t_{(4)}>2.308) =0.0411

So the p values is lower than the significance level given 0.05, so then we can conclude that we reject the null hypothesis.

b) The p value is illustrated on the figure attached.

If we select \alpha=0.01 we see that p_v >\alpha so then we have enough evidence to FAIL to reject the null hypothesis.

Step-by-step explanation:

Part a

A paired t-test is used to compare two population means where you have two samples in  which observations in one sample can be paired with observations in the other sample. For example  if we have Before-and-after observations (This problem) we can use it.  

Let put some notation  

1=test value old , 2 = test value new

1: 5.2 6.5 7.2 5.7 7.6

2: 6.4 7.8 6.8 6.5 8.2

The system of hypothesis for this case are:

Null hypothesis: \mu_2- \mu_1 \leq 0

Alternative hypothesis: \mu_2 -\mu_1 >0

The first step is calculate the difference d_i=y_i-x_i and we obtain this:

d: 1.2, 1.3, -0.4, 0.8, 0.6

The second step is calculate the mean difference  

\bar d= \frac{\sum_{i=1}^n d_i}{n}=0.7

The third step would be calculate the standard deviation for the differences, and we got:

s_d =\frac{\sum_{i=1}^n (d_i -\bar d)^2}{n-1} =0.678

The 4 step is calculate the statistic given by :

t=\frac{\bar d -0}{\frac{s_d}{\sqrt{n}}}=\frac{0.7 -0}{\frac{0.678}{\sqrt{5}}}=2.308

The next step is calculate the degrees of freedom given by:

df=n-1=5-1=4

Now we can calculate the p value, since we have a right tailed test the p value is given by:

p_v =P(t_{(4)}>2.308) =0.0411

So the p values is lower than the significance level given 0.05, so then we can conclude that we reject the null hypothesis.  

Part b

The p value is illustrated on the figure attached.

If we select \alpha=0.01 we see that p_v >\alpha so then we have enough evidence to FAIL to reject the null hypothesis.

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Answer:

a) 0.0548 = 5.48% probability of a random sample of size 36 yielding a sample mean of 78 or more.

b) 0.9858 = 98.58% probability of a random sample of size 150 yielding a sample mean of between 71 and 77.

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Step-by-step explanation:

To solve this question, we need to understand the normal probability distribution and the central limit theorem.

Normal Probability Distribution:

Problems of normal distributions can be solved using the z-score formula.

In a set with mean \mu and standard deviation \sigma, the z-score of a measure X is given by:

Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma}

The Z-score measures how many standard deviations the measure is from the mean. After finding the Z-score, we look at the z-score table and find the p-value associated with this z-score. This p-value is the probability that the value of the measure is smaller than X, that is, the percentile of X. Subtracting 1 by the p-value, we get the probability that the value of the measure is greater than X.

Central Limit Theorem

The Central Limit Theorem estabilishes that, for a normally distributed random variable X, with mean \mu and standard deviation \sigma, the sampling distribution of the sample means with size n can be approximated to a normal distribution with mean \mu and standard deviation s = \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}.

For a skewed variable, the Central Limit Theorem can also be applied, as long as n is at least 30.

The mean of a population is 74 and the standard deviation is 15.

This means that \mu = 74, \sigma = 15

Question a:

Sample of 36 means that n = 36, s = \frac{15}{\sqrt{36}} = 2.5

This probability is 1 subtracted by the pvalue of Z when X = 78. So

Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma}

By the Central Limit Theorem

Z = \frac{X - \mu}{s}

Z = \frac{78 - 74}{2.5}

Z = 1.6

Z = 1.6 has a pvalue of 0.9452

1 - 0.9452 = 0.0548

0.0548 = 5.48% probability of a random sample of size 36 yielding a sample mean of 78 or more.

Question b:

Sample of 150 means that n = 150, s = \frac{15}{\sqrt{150}} = 1.2247

This probability is the pvalue of Z when X = 77 subtracted by the pvalue of Z when X = 71. So

X = 77

Z = \frac{X - \mu}{s}

Z = \frac{77 - 74}{1.2274}

Z = 2.45

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X = 71

Z = \frac{X - \mu}{s}

Z = \frac{71 - 74}{1.2274}

Z = -2.45

Z = -2.45 has a pvalue of 0.0071

0.9929 - 0.0071 = 0.9858

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c. A random sample of size 219 yielding a sample mean of less than 74.2

Sample size of 219 means that n = 219, s = \frac{15}{\sqrt{219}} = 1.0136

This probability is the pvalue of Z when X = 74.2. So

Z = \frac{X - \mu}{s}

Z = \frac{74.2 - 74}{1.0136}

Z = 0.2

Z = 0.2 has a pvalue of 0.5793

0.5793 = 57.93% probability of a random sample of size 219 yielding a sample mean of less than 74.2

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