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puteri [66]
3 years ago
6

The probability that a customer's order is not shipped on time is 0.06. A particular customer places three orders, and the order

s are placed far enough apart in time that they can be considered to be independent events. Round your answers to four decimal places.
(a) What is the probability that all are shipped on time?
(b) What is the probability that exactly one is not shipped ontime?
(c) What is the probability that two or more orders are not shipped on time?
Mathematics
1 answer:
charle [14.2K]3 years ago
5 0

Answer:

a) There is a 83.06% probability that all orders are shipped on time.

b) There is a 15.90% probability that exactly one order is not shipped ontime.

c) The probability of at least two orders being late is 1.02% + 0.02% = 1.04%.

Step-by-step explanation:

Probability:

What you want to happen is the desired outcome.

Everything that can happen iis the total outcomes.

The probability is the division of the number of possible outcomes by the number of total outcomes.

In our problem, there is:

-A 6% probability that a customer's order is not shipped on time.

-A 94% probability that a customer's order is shipped on time.

We have these following orders:

O1 - O2 - O3.

(a) What is the probability that all are shipped on time?

The probabilities that each order is shipped on time are O1 = 0.94, O2 = 0.94 and O3 = 0.94. So:

P = (0.94)^{3} = 0.8306

There is a 83.06% probability that all orders are shipped on time.

(b) What is the probability that exactly one is not shipped ontime?

The order's can be permutated. What this means? It means that we can have O1 late and O2,03 on time, O2 late and O1,O3 on time and O3 late and O1, O2 on time. We have a permutation of 3 elements(the orders) with 2 and 1 repetitions(2 on time and one late).

The probability that an order is late is:

P = (0.94)^{2}(0.06) = 0.053 for each permutation

Considering the permutations:

P = 0.053*p^{3}_{2,1} = 0.053\frac{3!}{2!*1!} = 0.053*3 = 0.1590

There is a 15.90% probability that exactly one order is not shipped ontime.

(c) What is the probability that two or more orders are not shipped on time?

P = P1 + P2, where P1 is the probability that two orders are late and P3 is the probability that all three orders are late.

P1

Considering the permutations, the probability that two orders are late is:

P_{1} = p^{3}_{2,1}*(0.94)*(0.06)^{2} = 3*(0.94)*(0.06)^{2} = 0.0102

There is a 1.02% probability that two orders are late

P2

P_{2} = (0.06)^3 = 0.0002

There is a 0.02% probability that all three orders are late.

The probability of at least two orders being late is 1.02% + 0.02% = 1.04%.

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Step-by-step explanation:

Your scientific or graphing calculator will have exponential functions for bases 10 and e. On the calculator shown in the first attachment, they are shifted (2nd) functions on the log and ln keys. Consult your calculator manual for the use of these functions.

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__

We have assumed your log is to the base 10. If it is base e (a natural logarithm), then you use the e^x key instead. Desmos, and most spreadsheets, will make use of the EXP( ) function for the purpose of computing e^( ). You can type e^2.1423 into the Go.ogle calculator.

_____

<em>Additional comment</em>

There are also printed logarithm tables available that you can use to look up the number whose log is 0.1423. You may have to do some interpolation of table values. You should get a value of 1.3877 as the antilog. The characteristic of 2 tells you this value is multiplied by 10^2 = 100 to get the final antilog value.

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