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Morgarella [4.7K]
3 years ago
9

Suppose that a basketball player can score on a particular shot with probability .3. Use the central limit theorem to find the a

pproximate distribution of S, the number of successes out of 25 independent shots. Find the approximate probabilities that S is less than or equal to 5, 7, 9, and 11 and compare these to the exact probabilities.

Mathematics
1 answer:
Rom4ik [11]3 years ago
6 0

Answer:

(a) The probability that the number of successes is at most 5 is 0.1379.

(b) The probability that the number of successes is at most 5 is 0.1379.

(c) The probability that the number of successes is at most 5 is 0.1379.

(d) The probability that the number of successes is at most 11 is 0.9357.

→ All the exact probabilities are more than the approximated probability.

Step-by-step explanation:

Let <em>S</em> = a basketball player scores a shot.

The probability that a basketball player scores a shot is, P (S) = <em>p</em> = 0.30.

The number of sample selected is, <em>n</em> = 25.

The random variable S\sim Bin(25,0.30)

According to the central limit theorem if the sample taken from an unknown population is large then the sampling distribution of the sample proportion (\hat p) follows a normal distribution.

The mean of the the sampling distribution of the sample proportion is: E(\hat p)=p=0.30

The standard deviation of the the sampling distribution of the sample proportion is:

SD(\hat p)=\sqrt{\frac{ p(1- p)}{n} }=\sqrt{\frac{ 0.30(1-0.30)}{25} }=0.092

(a)

Compute the probability that the number of successes is at most 5 as follows:

The probability of 5 successes is: p=\frac{5}{25} =0.20

P(\hat p\leq 0.20)=P(\frac{\hat p-E(\hat p)}{SD(\hat p)}\leq  \frac{0.20-0.30}{0.092} )\\=P(Z\leq -1.087)\\=1-P(Z

**Use the standard normal table for probability.

Thus, the probability that the number of successes is at most 5 is 0.1379.

The exact probability that the number of successes is at most 5 is:

P(S\leq 5)={25\choose 5}(0.30)^{5}91-0.30)^{25-5}=0.1935

The exact probability is more than the approximated probability.

(b)

Compute the probability that the number of successes is at most 7 as follows:

The probability of 5 successes is: p=\frac{7}{25} =0.28

P(\hat p\leq 0.28)=P(\frac{\hat p-E(\hat p)}{SD(\hat p)}\leq  \frac{0.28-0.30}{0.092} )\\=P(Z\leq -0.2174)\\=1-P(Z

**Use the standard normal table for probability.

Thus, the probability that the number of successes is at most 7 is 0.4129.

The exact probability that the number of successes is at most 7 is:

P(S\leq 57)={25\choose 7}(0.30)^{7}91-0.30)^{25-7}=0.5118

The exact probability is more than the approximated probability.

(c)

Compute the probability that the number of successes is at most 9 as follows:

The probability of 5 successes is: p=\frac{9}{25} =0.36

P(\hat p\leq 0.36)=P(\frac{\hat p-E(\hat p)}{SD(\hat p)}\leq  \frac{0.36-0.30}{0.092} )\\=P(Z\leq 0.6522)\\=0.7422

**Use the standard normal table for probability.

Thus, the probability that the number of successes is at most 9 is 0.7422.

The exact probability that the number of successes is at most 9 is:

P(S\leq 9)={25\choose 9}(0.30)^{9}91-0.30)^{25-9}=0.8106

The exact probability is more than the approximated probability.

(d)

Compute the probability that the number of successes is at most 11 as follows:

The probability of 5 successes is: p=\frac{11}{25} =0.44

P(\hat p\leq 0.44)=P(\frac{\hat p-E(\hat p)}{SD(\hat p)}\leq  \frac{0.44-0.30}{0.092} )\\=P(Z\leq 1.522)\\=0.9357

**Use the standard normal table for probability.

Thus, the probability that the number of successes is at most 11 is 0.9357.

The exact probability that the number of successes is at most 11 is:

P(S\leq 11)={25\choose 11}(0.30)^{11}91-0.30)^{25-11}=0.9558

The exact probability is more than the approximated probability.

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