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maria [59]
2 years ago
5

Consider a system with one component that is subject to failure, and suppose that we have 115 copies of the component. Suppose f

urther that the lifespan of each copy is an independent exponential random variable with mean 20 days, and that we replace the component with a new copy immediately when it fails.
(a) Approximate the probability that the system is still working after 3500 days.
(b) Now, suppose that the time to replace the component is a random variable that is uniformly distributed over (0, 0.5). Approximate the probability that the system is still working after 4125 days.
Mathematics
1 answer:
castortr0y [4]2 years ago
7 0

Answer:

Step-by-step explanation:

From the given information:

the mean (\mu) = 115 \times 20

= 2300

Standard deviation = 20 \times \sqrt{115}

Standard deviation (SD) = 214.4761

TO find:

a) P(x > 3500)= P(Z > \dfrac{3500-\mu}{214.4761})

P(x > 3500)= P(Z > \dfrac{3500-2300}{214.4761})

P(x > 3500)= P(Z > \dfrac{1200}{214.4761})

P(x > 3500)= P(Z >5.595)

From the Z-table, since 5.595 is > 3.999

P(x > 3500)=1-0.9999

P(x > 3500) = 0.0001

b)

Here, the replacement time for the mean (\mu) = \dfrac{0+0.5}{2}

= 0.25

Replacement time for the Standard deviation \sigma = \dfrac{0.5-0}{\sqrt{12}}

\sigma = 0.1443

For 115 component, the mean time = (115 × 20)+(114×0.25)

= 2300 + 28.5

= 2328.5

Standard deviation = \sqrt{(115\times 20^2) +(114\times (0.1443)^2)}

= \sqrt{(115\times 400) +(114\times 0.02082249}

= \sqrt{(46000) +2.37376386}

= \sqrt{(46000) +(2.37376386)}

= \sqrt{46002.374}

= 214.482

Now; the required probability:

P(x > 4125) = P(Z > \dfrac{4125- 2328.5}{214.482})

P(x > 4125) = P(Z > \dfrac{1796.5}{214.482})

P(x > 4125) = P(Z >8.376)

P(x > 4125) =1-  P(Z

From the Z-table, since 8.376 is > 3.999

P(x > 4125) = 1 - 0.9999

P(x > 4125) = 0.0001

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