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The projections, if they play out, illustrate the potential magnitude of decisions such as the recent one by President Trump to walk away from the international Paris climate accord, in which more than 170 countries agreed to slash their carbon emissions in coming years. Meanwhile, hundreds of governors, mayors and other elected officials have vowed to continue the shift toward cleaner sources of energy.
Hsiang acknowledged that despite the researchers’ efforts to use sound statistical approaches and a wealth of databases, calculating the future costs of climate change is inherently uncertain. Communities are likely to adapt and become more resilient. Industries evolve and relocate.
Delavane Diaz, a senior technical leader at the Electric Power Research Institute, agreed that the study has limitations. For one, it fails to account for how humans will probably plan for and respond to the changing climate. Still, she said, the conclusions provide an important glimpse of the economic risks the United States could face as global warming worsens.
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