Question

A new mutation arises in one person on the island of Kiribati (human population size 100,000). Assuming this particular mutation is total neutral, and assuming no gene flow, what is the probability that this mutation will eventually be lost due to genetic drift

Answer 1

Answer:

0.999999 ≈ 1

Explanation:

In a population ( N ) there is the presence of 2N alleles in the population also chance of fixation can be expressed as ; 1/ 2N

Therefore the probability that the mutation will be lost due to genetic drift

= 2N - 1 / 2N ---- ( 1 )

given that ; N = 100,000

back to equation 1

P ( losing mutation due to genetic drift ) = ((2*100,000) - 1 )) / ( 2* 100,000 )

= ( 200,000 - 1 ) / 200,000

= 0.999999 ≈ 1