Imagine that Dr. Jones publishes a study that claims that drinking while pregnant is dangerous for the health of the unborn baby
. He surveys 200 women and finds that of the 100 women in his study who drank when pregnant, 78 had children who experienced problems with attention. Of the 100 women in his study who did not drink when pregnant, only 29 children experienced problems with attention. Your neighbor says that Dr. Jones is wrong because she drank when pregnant and her child is perfectly healthy. Explain why Dr. Jones is NOT wrong.
Dr. Jones conclusion was based on probability which measures the degree of likelihood of an occurrence or event. In his experiment, the result could be interpreted using point estimate to mean that ; 78/100 = 0.78 or 78% of those who drank while pregnant has problem with attention while only 29/100 = 0.29 or 29% of those who did not drink.
This conclusion means that pregnant women who drink have a higher likelihood of giving birth to a child with attention problem than pregnant women who do not drink. Hence, the fact that someone who drank gave birth to a perfectly healthy child does not discredit or annull Dr. Jones study.
