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Mathematics

1 answer:

FromTheMoon [43]2 years ago

4 0

I think it is B but I might be wrong

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Answer:

a. $P(E_1/A)=0.0789$

b. $P(E_2/A)=0.395$ \

c. $P(E_3/A)=0.526$

Step-by-step explanation:

Let $E_1,E_2,E_3$ are the events that denotes the good drive, medium drive and poor risk driver.

$P(E_1)=0.30,P(E_2)=0.50,P(E_3)=0.20$

Let A be the event that denotes an accident.

$P(A/E_1)=0.01$

$P(A/E_2=0.03$

$P(A/E_3)=0.10$

The company sells Mr. Brophyan insurance policy and he has an accident.

a.We have to find the probability Mr.Brophy is a good driver

Bayes theorem, $P(E_i/A)=\frac{P(A/E_i)\cdot P(E_1)}{\sum_{i=1}^{i=n}P(A/E_i)\cdot P(E_i)}$

We have to find $P(E_1/A)$

Using the Bayes theorem

$P(E_1/A)=\frac{P(A/E_1)\cdot P(E_1)}{P(E_1)\cdot P(A/E_1)+P(E_2)P(A/E_2)+P(E_3)P(A/E_3)}$

Substitute the values then we get

$P(E_1/A)=\frac{0.30\times 0.01}{0.01\times 0.30+0.50\times 0.03+0.20\times 0.10}$

$P(E_1/A)=0.0789$

b.We have to find the probability Mr.Brophy is a medium driver

$P(E_2/A)=\frac{0.03\times 0.50}{0.038}=0.395$

c.We have to find the probability Mr.Brophy is a poor driver

$P(E_3/A)=\frac{0.20\times 0.10}{0.038}=0.526$

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