After Japan aligned itself with Britain in 1900, Germany and Japan became enemies in World War I. Japan declared war on the German Empire in 1914 and seized key German possessions in China and the Pacific. In the 1930s, both countries adopted aggressive militaristic attitudes toward their respective regions.
I feel like the tossup states were probably Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Texas maybe (demographic shifts is why), Arizona, Nevada, Iowa, Ohio. (The characterization for these states differed among sources though)