Answer:
designing a replacement with internal resources yields the highest expected value = $6,100,000
Explanation:
expected values:
keep the old model
expected profits = $6,000,000
design a replacement with internal resources
receptive market = $10,000,000 x 0.7 = $7,000,000
neutral market = -$3,000,000 x 0.3 = -$900,000
total expected value = $6,100,000
purchase new design
receptive market = $4,000,000 x 0.7 = $2,800,000
neutral market = $1,000,000 x 0.3 = $300,000
total expected value = $3,100,000
there is no room here to draw a proper decision tree, but it would be something like this:
⇒ keep old model ⇒ $6,000,000 in profits
sensing device ⇒ design a replacement ⇒ receptive market
$7,000,000
⇒ neutral market
-$900,000
continuing from above ⇒ expected value
$6,100,000
⇒ outside supplier ⇒ receptive market
$2,800,000
⇒ neutral market
$300,000
continuing from above ⇒ expected value
$3,100,000
