Answer:
If General James Longstreet had commanded the Confederate forces at Gettysburg instead of Lee the Confederacy might very well have won the Civil War.
The outcome of a Confederate victory would have been the break up of the United States but not quite as President Jeff Davis wanted. The Confederacy was never a country, which is obvious from its name. The Southern states were allied by expediency but were as disparate among each other as they were with the North. It is difficult to see how they would have formed an alternative long term Confederate States.
The Confederacy could not have occupied the North and had no intention to do so. The invasion of the North by the Army of Northern Virginia was tactical, not strategic and the Southern Government's intention was to sue for peace based on a rather naive idea that capturing Washington would have ended the war.
If they had captured Lincoln and his government that might have happened, more likely though they would have decamped to another major Northern city before the Army of Northern Virginia got there.
Great question, I was looking forward to a debate on the Civil War!
Explanation:
