Question

The result of your Monte Carlo simulation for the Present Worth of a project is a normal distribution with a mean of $575,234 and a standard deviation of $10,245. If your boss tells you that in order to be successful, the Present Worth needs to exceed $560,000. What is the chance that the project will NOT succeed

Answer 1

Answer:

6.85%

Explanation:

Mean = 575,234

Standard deviation = 10,245

Project will be successful when PV > 560,000

For not getting success, PV < 560,000

P (X < 560,000) = P (Z < (560,000-575,234)/10,245)

P (X < 560,000) = P (Z < -1.48697)

P (X < 560,000) = 0.0685

P (X < 560,000) = 6.85%

Therefore, the chance that the project will NOT succeed is 6.85%