Answer:
the conditional probability that X = 1 , X = 2 and X = 3 is 0.7333 (73.33%) , 0.25 (25%) and 0.0167 (1.67%) respectively
Step-by-step explanation:
a player wins money when i>0 then defining event W= gain money , then
P(W) = p(i>0) = p(1)+p(2)+p(3)
then the conditional probability can be calculated through the theorem of Bayes
P(X=1/W)= P(X=1 ∩ W)/P(W)
where
P(X=1 ∩ W)= probability that the payout is 1 and earns money
P(X=1 / W)= probability that the payout is 1 given money was earned
then
P(X=1/W)= P(X=1 ∩ W)/P(W) = P(X=1) / P(W) = p(1) /[p(1)+p(2)+p(3)] = 11/40 /(11/40+3/32+1/160
) = 0.7333 (73.33%)
similarly
P(X=2/W)=p(2) /[p(1)+p(2)+p(3)] = 3/32 /(11/40+3/32+1/160
) = 0.25 (25%)
P(X=3/W)=p(2) /[p(1)+p(2)+p(3)] = 1/160 /(11/40+3/32+1/160
) = 0.0167 (1.67%)
The First one is the answer.
Knowing its a geometric sequence, you can divide any number by the one in front of it, the answer is 4.3
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