Question:
The operations manager for a well-drilling company must recommend whether to build a new facility, expand his existing one, or do nothing. He estimates that long-run profits (in $000) will vary with the amount of precipitation (rainfall) as follows:
Alternative Precipitation
Low Normal High
Do nothing -100 100 300
Expand 350 500 200
Build new 750 300 0
If he feels the chances of low, normal, and high precipitation are 30 percent, 20 percent, and 50 percent respectively, What is EVPI (Expected value of Perfect Information)?
A. $140,000
B. $170,000
C. $285,000
D. $305,000
E. $475,000
Answer:
D. $170,000
Explanation:
The expected long run profits are for
Low Normal High
Do nothing -100*0.3 100*0.2 300*0.5 = 140
Expand 350*0.3 500*0.2 200*0.5 = 305
Build new 750*0.3 300*0.2 0*0.5 = 285
Therefore the expected long run profits are
$140,000
$305,000
$285,000
Based on his selected option being either to build new or to expand, the most profitable option is to expand
=$305,000
EVPI = EPPI-EMV =$170,000
