1. Observation-- making observations and taking notes about what you see, smell, hear, think, etc.
2. Question-- developing a question to test your observations.
3. Hypothesis-- creating an educated guess as to the answer of your question.
In the first situation: the mechanism of covection is the main form of heat transfer when warm air from a heater moves around and upward.
In the case of the metal pan the mechanism of heat transfer is conduction.
In the case of sunburn the mechanism is radiation.
In the case of an ice cube melting in a hand, conduction is the most important mechanism.