Question

to advance in time the evolution of temperature of the atmosphere at any given point in the globe, models calculate the temperature changes due to

Answer 1

• The complexity of Earth is beyond the capabilities of computer simulations.
• Numerous assumptions that must be made by computer models have a big impact on the forecasts they produce.
• A computer model can incorporate historical climate data, but it is not possible to draw assumptions about future climates using this data in any way.
• A computer model cannot distinguish between anthropogenic climate change and natural climatic fluctuations.

How precise are temperature forecasts made by climate models?

The forecasting of global surface temperatures is one of the most significant results of climate models.

Scientists evaluate the effectiveness of their models by contrasting observations of the Earth's climate with predictions of future temperatures and "hindcasts" of past temperatures. Then, by comparing specific climate models and the average of all models to actual warming, scientists may determine whether temperature projections are accurate.

Researchers can have more faith that models can effectively predict future changes in the same factors if they successfully simulate the climate response in the past.

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