Question

Use the Poisson model to approximate the probability. Round your answer to four decimal places. Suppose the probability of a major earthquake on a given day is 1 out of 15,000. Use the Poisson distribution to approximate the probability that there will be at least one major earthquake in the next 2000 days.

Answer 1

The value of lambda for 2000 days = 2000 * (1/15000) = 2/15.
$P(X=1)=\frac{e^{-\lambda}\lambda^{x}}{x!}=0.1167$