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3 years ago

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500 flights land each day at San Jose’s airport. Assume that each flight has a 5% chance of being late, independently of whether

any other flights are late. Using Excel, calculate the probability of the following events. Turn in your spreadsheet. (a) 15 or fewer flights are late. (b) 30 or more flights are late. (c) Exactly 26 flights are late. (d) Between 10 and 20 flights are late. (e) Does our assumption of independence seem reasonable to you? Why or why not?

1 answer:

BARSIC [14]3 years ago

6 0

Answer:

a.0.0199

b.0.1765

c.0.0785

d.0.1268

e.Yes

Explanation:

It is given that X follows a Binomial distribution with (n= 500, p = 0.05)

The probabilities are computed using the EXCEL .

a) The required probability here is:

P(X less of equal to 15)

= binom.dist(15,500,0.05,TRUE)

=0.0199

Therefore the probability is 0.0199 .

b) The required probability here is:

P(X greater or equal to 30) = 1 - P(X less or equal to 29)

=1 - binom.dist(29,500,0.05,TRUE)

=0.1765

Therefore the probability is 0.1765

c) P(X = 26 )

= binom.dist(26,500,0.05,FALSE)

=0.0785

Therefore the probability is 0.0785

d) The required probability here is computed as:

P(10 less or equal to X less or equal to 20 ) = P(X less or equal to 19) - P(X less or equal to 10)

= binom.dist(19,500,0.05,TRUE) - binom.dist(10,500,0.05,TRUE)

=0.1268

Therefore the probability 0.1268

e) Yes . Therefore the probability because that is the assumption used to apply binomial distribution .

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Among all three tools, the ceramic tool is taking the least time for the production of a batch, however, machining from the HSS tool is taking the highest time.

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The optimum cutting speed for the minimum cost

$V_{opt}= \frac{C}{\left[\left(T_c+\frac{C_e}{C_m}\right)\left(\frac{1}{n}-1\right)\right]^n}\;\cdots(i)$

Where,

C,n = Taylor equation parameters

$T_h$ =Tool changing time in minutes

$C_e$ =Cost per grinding per edge

$C_m$ = Machine and operator cost per minute

On comparing with the Taylor equation $VT^n=C$ ,

Tool life,

$T= \left[ \left(T_t+\frac{C_e}{C_m}\right)\left(\frac{1}{n}-1\right)\right]}\;\cdots(ii)$

Given that,

Cost of operator and machine time $=\$40/hr=\$0.667/min$

Batch setting time = 2 hr

Part handling time: $T_h=2.5$ min

Part diameter: $D=73 mm$ $=73\times 10^{-3} m$

Part length: $l=250 mm=250\times 10^{-3} m$

Feed: $f=0.30 mm/rev= 0.3\times 10^{-3} m/rev$

Depth of cut: $d=3.5 mm$

For the HSS tool:

Tool cost is $20 and it can be ground and reground 15 times and the grinding= $2/grind.

So, $C_e=$ $\$20/15+2=\$3.33/edge$

Tool changing time, $T_t=3$ min.

$C= 80 m/min$

$n=0.130$

(a) From equation (i), cutting speed for the minimum cost:

$V_{opt}= \frac {80}{\left[ \left(3+\frac{3.33}{0.667}\right)\left(\frac{1}{0.13}-1\right)\right]^{0.13}}$

$\Rightarrow 47.7$ m/min

(b) From equation (ii), the tool life,

$T=\left(3+\frac{3.33}{0.667}\right)\left(\frac{1}{0.13}-1\right)\right]}$

$\Rightarrow T=53.4$ min

(c) Cycle time: $T_c=T_h+T_m+\frac{T_t}{n_p}$

where,

$T_m=$ Machining time for one part

$n_p=$ Number of pieces cut in one tool life

$T_m= \frac{l}{fN}$ min, where $N=\frac{V_{opt}}{\pi D}$ is the rpm of the spindle.

$\Rightarrow T_m= \frac{\pi D l}{fV_{opt}}$

$\Rightarrow T_m=\frac{\pi \times 73 \times 250\times 10^{-6}}{0.3\times 10^{-3}\times 47.7}=4.01 min/pc$

So, the number of parts produced in one tool life

$n_p=\frac {T}{T_m}$

$\Rightarrow n_p=\frac {53.4}{4.01}=13.3$

Round it to the lower integer

$\Rightarrow n_p=13$

So, the cycle time

$T_c=2.5+4.01+\frac{3}{13}=6.74$ min/pc

(d) Cost per production unit:

$C_c= C_mT_c+\frac{C_e}{n_p}$

$\Rightarrow C_c=0.667\times6.74+\frac{3.33}{13}=\$4.75/pc$

(e) Total time to complete the batch= Sum of setup time and production time for one batch

$=2\times60+ {50\times 6.74}{50}=457 min=7.62 hr$ .

(f) The proportion of time spent actually cutting metal

$=\frac{50\times4.01}{457}=0.4387=43.87\%$

Now, for the cemented carbide tool:

Cost per edge,

$C_e=$ $\$8/6=\$1.33/edge$

Tool changing time, $T_t=1min$

$C= 650 m/min$

$n=0.30$

(a) Cutting speed for the minimum cost:

$V_{opt}= \frac {650}{\left[ \left(1+\frac{1.33}{0.667}\right)\left(\frac{1}{0.3}-1\right)\right]^{0.3}}=363m/min$ [from(i)]

(b) Tool life,

$T=\left[ \left(1+\frac{1.33}{0.667}\right)\left(\frac{1}{0.3}-1\right)\right]=7min$ [from(ii)]

(c) Cycle time:

$T_c=T_h+T_m+\frac{T_t}{n_p}$

$T_m= \frac{\pi D l}{fV_{opt}}$

$\Rightarrow T_m=\frac{\pi \times 73 \times 250\times 10^{-6}}{0.3\times 10^{-3}\times 363}=0.53min/pc$

$n_p=\frac {7}{0.53}=13.2$

$\Rightarrow n_p=13$ [ nearest lower integer]

So, the cycle time

$T_c=2.5+0.53+\frac{1}{13}=3.11 min/pc$

(d) Cost per production unit:

$C_c= C_mT_c+\frac{C_e}{n_p}$

$\Rightarrow C_c=0.667\times3.11+\frac{1.33}{13}=\$2.18/pc$

(e) Total time to complete the batch $=2\times60+ {50\times 3.11}{50}=275.5 min=4.59 hr$ .

(f) The proportion of time spent actually cutting metal

$=\frac{50\times0.53}{275.5}=0.0962=9.62\%$

Similarly, for the ceramic tool:

$C_e=$ $\$10/6=\$1.67/edge$

$T_t-1min$

$C= 3500 m/min$

$n=0.6$

(a) Cutting speed:

$V_{opt}= \frac {3500}{\left[ \left(1+\frac{1.67}{0.667}\right)\left(\frac{1}{0.6}-1\right)\right]^{0.6}}$

$\Rightarrow V_{opt}=2105 m/min$

(b) Tool life,

$T=\left[ \left(1+\frac{1.67}{0.667}\right)\left(\frac{1}{0.6}-1\right)\right]=2.33 min$

(c) Cycle time:

$T_c=T_h+T_m+\frac{T_t}{n_p}$

$\Rightarrow T_m=\frac{\pi \times 73 \times 250\times 10^{-6}}{0.3\times 10^{-3}\times 2105}=0.091 min/pc$

$n_p=\frac {2.33}{0.091}=25.6$

$\Rightarrow n_p=25 pc/tool\; life$

So,

$T_c=2.5+0.091+\frac{1}{25}=2.63 min/pc$

(d) Cost per production unit:

$C_c= C_mT_c+\frac{C_e}{n_p}$

$\Rightarrow C_c=0.667\times2.63+\frac{1.67}{25}=$1.82/pc$

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$=2\times60+ {50\times 2.63}=251.5 min=4.19 hr$ .

(f) The proportion of time spent actually cutting metal

$=\frac{50\times0.091}{251.5}=0.0181=1.81\%$

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