Question

Professor Frank Nabarro insists that all senior physics majors take his notorious physics aptitude test. The test is so tough that anyone not going on to a career in physics has no hope of passing, whereas 35% of the seniors who do go on to a career in physics still fail the test. Further, 70% of all senior physics majors in fact go on to a career in physics. Assuming that you fail the test, what is the probability that you will not go on to a career in physics? (Round your answer to four decimal places.)

Answer 1

Answer:

0.5504

Explanation:

We can use Bay's theorem to solve this question

P( No physics career/fail) = P(No Physics career and fail)/P(Fail)

= P( Fail/ No physics career)×P( no physics career)/P( fail)

=$\frac{0.3\times1}{(0.7\times0.35)+(0.3\times1)}$

=0.5504