To solve this exercise it is necessary to take into account the concepts related to Tensile Strength and Shear Strenght.
In Materials Mechanics, generally the bodies under certain loads are subject to both Tensile and shear strenghts.
By definition we know that the tensile strength is defined as

Where,
Tensile strength
F = Tensile Force
A = Cross-sectional Area
In the other hand we have that the shear strength is defined as

where,
Shear strength
Shear Force
Parallel Area
PART A) Replacing with our values in the equation of tensile strenght, then

Resolving for F,

PART B) We need here to apply the shear strength equation, then



In such a way that the material is more resistant to tensile strength than shear force.
Explanation:
In order to find out if the keys will reach John or not, we can use the formula of projectile motion to find the maximum height reached by the keys:
H = V²Sin²θ/2g
where,
V = Launch Speed = 18 m/s
θ = Launch Angle = 40°
g = 9.8 m/s²
Therefore,
H = (18 m/s)²[Sin 40°]²/(2)(9.8 m/s²)
H = 6.83 m
Hence, the maximum height that can be reached by the projectile or the keys is greater than the height of John's Balcony(5.33 m).
Therefore, the keys will make it back to John.
That certain change from that ecosystem will require 50 years or longer because big ecosystems need a long time to restablize the living ecosystem.